The hottest waste paper inventory rebounded, and t

2022-08-18
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Waste paper inventory rebounded by 24.32%, and the paper price may fall after the end of paper factory stocking

release date: Source: Guosen Securities editor: Yu Jia Views: 2485 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: as of October 31, China's waste paper inventory has reached 9.56 days, up 24.32% from the bottom of the inventory. At the same time, it is expected that next year's import quota will be issued in December. The upstream inventory rebounded and the production capacity continued to be put in. The stock preparation of paper mills in the peak season gradually ended, and the paper price may fall steadily. As the environmental protection policy becomes stricter, some small and medium-sized enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards are limited in production, and the orders gradually flow to large enterprises. The downstream consumer demand is picking up and the new year is approaching. It is expected that the carton industry will usher in good news after November

[China Packaging News] according to the research report, as of October 31, the number of days of waste paper inventory in China reached 9.56, up 24.32% from the bottom of the inventory. At the same time, it is expected that next year's import quota will be issued in December. The upstream inventory rebounded and the production capacity continued to be put in. The stock preparation of paper mills in the peak season gradually ended, and the paper price may fall steadily. As the environmental protection policy becomes stricter, some small and medium-sized enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards are limited in production, and the orders gradually flow to large enterprises. The downstream consumer demand is picking up and the new year is approaching. It is expected that the carton industry will usher in good news after November

upstream: inventory rebounded, production capacity continued to be put in, and the stock preparation of paper mills gradually ended in the peak season

(1) wood pulp: according to statistics, the global new increase in production in 2017 could reach 3.97 million tons, of which the new increase in production in the second half of 2017 could reach 2.57 million tons, equivalent to 8.09% and 5.24% of global shipments in 2016, respectively, significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of global shipments in the past five years. On October 31, 2017, the inventory of wood pulp in Qingdao port and Baoding warehouse reached 360000 tons 27300 tons, up 26.32% and 25.71% respectively from the bottom. The long-term trend of wood pulp is expected to stabilize

(2) waste paper: the number of days of waste paper inventory in China reached 9.56 on October 31, 2017, rising for two consecutive months, 4.32% higher than the bottom of the inventory. 2 the device can quickly lay materials into the desired three-dimensional shape. At the same time, it is expected that factors such as the issuance of import quotas in December next year, the early completion of preparations in the "double 11" and "Spring Festival" peak seasons, and traders' shipments are expected to restrain the short-term waste paper price

△ in terms of time point prices, from the beginning of 2017 to October 31, the price of waste paper increased by 56.02% to 2759.67 yuan/ton. From October 18, 2017 to October 31, 2017, the callback range reached 9.03%

(3) base paper: in 2017, the average price of major paper varieties increased by% year-on-year, all at a high level. Corrugated paper and boxboard have fallen significantly recently. At the same time, the gradual stabilization of raw material prices, one of the main drivers of base paper prices, will further drive the base paper prices to gradually return to normal and stable

△ since October, due to the sharp fluctuation of the upstream waste paper price, the corrugated paper price has fallen. The latest quotation on October 31 was 5475 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -2.12%

the paper price is high, the inventory rebounds, the peak season gradually ends, and the paper price may tend to stabilize and fall.

in terms of cardboard, corrugated paper and whiteboard with waste paper as raw materials, with the "double 11", the early preparation of goods in the spring Festival peak season gradually ends in December, and the initial emergence of factors such as year-end shipments of traders and the issuance of import waste paper quotas, the paper price may tend to stabilize and fall

midstream: orders are expected to continue to concentrate on leading enterprises, and the price pressure is expected to gradually transmit to the downstream.

(1) the rise in paper prices and environmental protection production restrictions cause low profits for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the industry concentration is expected to gradually increase.

the rise in raw material prices has seriously diluted the profits of paper packaging enterprises. Since 2016, the state has continuously strengthened environmental governance and accelerated the completion of the liquidation of backward production capacity. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that fail to meet the environmental protection standards have stopped production and limited production. The environmental protection intensity in the second half of 2017 is higher than that in the first half of 2017. Shandong, Fuyang and other areas where papermaking enterprises are concentrated have repeatedly implemented the rotation of qualified enterprises, resulting in supply contraction, and orders further flow to large enterprises that meet the environmental protection standards

△ in 2017, some environmental protection supervision memorabilia

(2) paper packaging enterprises continued to raise prices, and their profits improved. The market share of the top three companies in the business scale of corrugated box board was about 25%. Paper packaging enterprises' overall bargaining power for upstream was weak. At the same time, packaging paper enterprises tended to have a high proportion of single customers, and their bargaining power for downstream customers was limited. If the upstream price increases, the overall transmission speed of the product price of paper packaging enterprises to the downstream is slow. However, with the continuous transmission of product prices to the downstream in the past year and the slowdown of upstream price growth, the profit pattern is expected to gradually improve

downstream: benefiting from the recovery of consumer demand, the growth potential of the packaging industry is full

(1) there are obvious signs of recovery in the consumer industry, supporting the midstream paper packaging industry

since February 2017, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of Enterprises above the designated size in China has rebounded, and the consumer industry has gradually recovered. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of 100 and 50 key retail enterprises with improved food shelf life nationwide has changed from negative to positive from 2016q4 and 2017q1, respectively. At the same time, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of CPI has also begun to rebound, and there are obvious signs of recovery in the consumer industry, which has formed a strong support for the improvement of the revenue of the midstream paper packaging industry, including the instigation and installation of loading speed, peak persistence, and overload protection

(2) cartons: the peak season of express delivery is coming, which is good for the carton industry

affected by the traditional peak season of e-commerce purchase in the initial 3MS and the approaching new year, the express business volume is expected to rise. In the long run, the corrugated box output in December 2016 was 3.93 million tons, the highest in the whole year; The monthly data from 2009 to 2016 showed that the monthly output of corrugated boxes in December was the highest in all years. We expect the carton industry to enter the peak season in November

(3) the color box packaging industry has a broad space

it is estimated that the company's corresponding carton market size in the smart, PC, tablet, wine and cosmetics industries in 2017 was about 208146million yuan, with a broad market space

Smart: leading shipments continue to grow

tablet computers: shipments have declined significantly, and market concentration has increased

pc: the downward pressure on shipments is small, and the market concentration increases slightly

Baijiu: the industry has rebounded

cosmetics: retail sales have continued to rise steadily in recent years

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